Analysis of the Economic Growth Cycles of the Ecuadorian Economy
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Abstract
This article analyzes the economic growth cycles of the Ecuadorian economy during the economic periods 2000 - 2017. It is a descriptive study carried out through the bibliographic review and the analysis of macroeconomic variables statistics provided by the Central Bank of Ecuador. The results show that household consumption and exports have a cycle identical to that of GDP, which is reflected with negative values, being well below the average, meaning that they are going through a recession or a gradual slowdown. On the other hand, exports behave similarly to GDP, falling apart and influencing a high fall. It is concluded that government spending on dollarization has been volatile and cyclical, behaving very differently from GDP, that is, increasing or decreasing before GDP. From 2000 to 2015, it presents a recession, remaining stable over time, which implies that, although government consumption falls, it does not do so at the same rate as GDP. Further, in 2012, when the price of oil was still high, the economic cycle began to crumble, consolidating it in 2014 and bringing with it a recessive process of problems to Ecuador, even worse than in 2009.
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